• The failure of the WTO Mini- Ministerial Meeting in Geneva in July 2008, to finalise modalities for Agriculture and Non-Agricultural Market Access (NAMA) (industrial products and fisheries products),  is a stark reminder of  the deep seated divisions which exist among WTO members particularly on these two issues, which are considered the underpinnings of the Doha Round.  Also, it serves as an important lesson that if the divisions are not bridged among WTO members in a meaningful way, then final modalities will remain elusive.

• Many felt that the July Mini-Ministerial was premature.  Three months on, there are no strong indications that members are closer to an agreement even though some WTO Members have expressed the political will to make progress.

• Also, the recently concluded G20 Summit on the Financial Crisis held in Washington on 15^th November 2008, has injected some political impetus into the Doha Round.  Among the declarations made by G20 leaders is the will to strive “to reach agreement this year on modalities that leads to a successful conclusion to the WTO’s Doha Development Agenda with an ambitious and balanced outcome.”  Also, they agreed that since their countries have the largest stake in the global trading system, “each must make the positive contributions to achieve such outcome.”

• The G20 comprises Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, the UK and the US, plus the European Union as a member.  Even though these members share a common objective as G20 members, they have competing interests in the WTO.  It will be interesting to see how their political commitment translates into concessions in the negotiations.

• Pascal Lamy, in an effort mostly to save face and to act on the G20’s political declaration, has introduced what appears to be a road map to achieve final modalities before the year ends i.e. by 19 December 2008.  He indicated this week, that revised Agriculture and NAMA texts would need to be prepared (even though the Chairman of the two Negotiating Groups appear skeptical since major progress in the negotiations would be required if new texts are to be produced).

• DG Lamy is also inviting Agriculture and NAMA Capital- based Experts to Geneva within days and plans to hold a Green Room Meeting on Sunday November 23^rd.  It is understood that at that Meeting a definitive date for a Ministerial meeting in December will be set. 

• It remains unclear whether final modalities are possible.  Hopefully, by next week we should be better able to assess whether a Ministerial Meeting in December is indeed warranted.

Foreign Trade Department

19^th November 2008